Election update: What’s it looking like?
By Devyn Shea (TheLorian)
There are hundreds of elections this year in the United States. These elections are coming up in roughly a month. So, what’s the rundown?
All 435 congressional seats are up for election this year. “The Economist” gives Democrats a 98% chance of holding onto the House of Representatives. “Politico” has 217 seats as leaning Democratic to Solid Democratic, which is one seat away from a likely majority. “Politico” also has 186 seats ranging from leaning Republican to Solid Republican, with 32 remaining seats as competitive/up for grabs. “The Cook Political Report” give Democrats a win with 222 seats leaning to solid Democratic, 185 Republican, and 28 as a toss-up. “Roll Call” has a deeper analysis on the toss-up elections. They give 10 house incumbents as the most vulnerable, five Democrats and five Republicans. Out of the five vulnerable Democrats, three are at least leaning Democratic slightly, but two are in a toss-up.
One vulnerable congressperson is Kendra Horn. Before Congress, Kendra Horn had experience in the aerospace industry and with running two non-profits. In 2018, she made an upset victory by beating an incumbent Republican in a district that had not went Democratic in decades. This year she is being challenged by Oklahoma State Senator Stephanie Bice. Bice has recently won a heated primary between her and another more conservative Republican candidate. As of Aug. 5, Bice has only $84,424 cash on hand, spending most of what she had in the primary. Rep. Horn had $2.6 million at the end of June, giving her a huge financial advantage. Averaging the polling for this race in the past month using “FiveThirtyEight’s” polling data shows that Horn has a lead with 49% with Bice at 45%.
When it comes to the Senate, “Politico” says it’s too close to call as well as “270towin.” “FiveThirtyEight” and “The Economist” say that Democrats are more likely to flip the Senate to their side. “The Economist” has Democrats at a 68% chance of controlling the US Senate, with “FiveThirtyEight” finding that in 61 of 100 scenarios, Democrats control the Senate. “Politico” gives the Senate rundown as 48 most likely seats for Democrats and 48 most likely for Republicans. This leaves 4 seats as complete toss-ups. That is Montana, North Carolina, Maine, and Iowa.
In Montana, Incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines is being challenged by Democratic Governor Steve Bullock. After Bullock’s failed attempt at the Presidency last year, he has decided to challenge his state’s sitting Senator. The two of them combined had raised roughly $24 million as of the end of June. That same report showed that they had roughly the same amount of money on hand. An average of polling from “FiveThirtyEight” this month shows Daines leading with 47.5% to Bullock’s 45.5%.
Governorships this year lean Republican. Many Americans don’t know that some states hold their governor elections in Presidential election years. 11 states this year will elect their governors. None of which are considered toss-ups according to “Politico.” Republicans are leaning towards a win in eight out of the 11 governorships.
For the Presidency this year, as of late September, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a lead against sitting President Donald Trump. “Politico,” “FiveThirtyEight,” and “The Economist” all have Joe Biden as the likely winner of the Presidential Election. According to “FiveThirtyEight,” Biden has a 77% chance of winning. “The Economist” gives Biden an 85% chance of winning the Electoral College and a 97% chance of winning the popular vote. Each have a different consensus on which state are entirely toss-ups or not. These sources show Trump holding onto Ohio and Iowa, states that had voted for Obama in 2012, but flipped to Trump in 2016. “FiveThirtyEight’s” polling averages show that Trump is slightly losing Ohio as of Sept. 26 47.9 – 46.9%. Their own prediction gives Biden 49.6 – 49.4 %. The other state is more likely to win that he had previously picked up is Iowa. Right now, Trump is winning the state by less than a percent in the polls.
Trump is losing, however, in four key states he won in 2016. Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump is down several points and these states are most likely to go blue. Pennsylvania has had Biden hovering around 50% for the past year and Florida is neck-and-neck and perhaps the closest state in the union. One potentially major defeat for Trump is Arizona. A state that has voted for Republicans every year except once (1996) since 1952 shows Biden consistently winning. A Trump victory depends on a win in Florida and other states he had won in 2016, as well as the traditionally Republican state of Arizona.